The impact of the Great Japan Earthquake and the tsunami triggered by it and planned power outages on the industry is worrying. When the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) released global semiconductor sales in February 2011, it said it was “investigating†the impact of the earthquake on the global semiconductor supply chain. Under the premise of negative influence of anxiety, the United States IHS iSuppli issued a "reverse" view on April 5, 2011: "This earthquake will drive growth in global semiconductor sales."
According to information released by iSuppli, in its latest global semiconductor market forecast compiled on March 30, 2011, it is expected that the global semiconductor market in 2011 will reach US$325.2 billion, a 7.0% increase over the previous year. The previous forecast, which was compiled in February 2011, was a 5.8% increase from the previous year, and the March forecast raised it by 1.2%. Regarding the main reason for the upward adjustment, iSuppli believes that it lies in the expansion of the DRAM market. In the last forecast, it believes that the DRAM market size in 2011 will be reduced by 10.6% from the previous year, and this forecast is a decrease of 4.0% from the previous year. The quake will lead to a 1.1% reduction in global DRAM supply from March to April, but at the same time the reduction in supply will inhibit the decline in DRAM prices, and eventually the DRAM market will expand in size.
Specifically, according to iSuppli, prices for bulk buyers fell by around 3% in March of last year, while they stabilized in March 2011. As for the April price, the last forecast is expected to fall by 4% to 3%, and this forecast is to increase by 0-2%. In addition, if the shortage of wafers deteriorates, the DRAM prices in the second half of 2011 may increase further. Japan accounted for 60% of the global supply of silicon wafers, but Shinitsu Semiconductor’s Shenji and Xixiang factories, the largest suppliers of silicon wafers, were all suspended. The supply of silicon wafers in these two factories accounted for 20 %.
According to information released by iSuppli, in its latest global semiconductor market forecast compiled on March 30, 2011, it is expected that the global semiconductor market in 2011 will reach US$325.2 billion, a 7.0% increase over the previous year. The previous forecast, which was compiled in February 2011, was a 5.8% increase from the previous year, and the March forecast raised it by 1.2%. Regarding the main reason for the upward adjustment, iSuppli believes that it lies in the expansion of the DRAM market. In the last forecast, it believes that the DRAM market size in 2011 will be reduced by 10.6% from the previous year, and this forecast is a decrease of 4.0% from the previous year. The quake will lead to a 1.1% reduction in global DRAM supply from March to April, but at the same time the reduction in supply will inhibit the decline in DRAM prices, and eventually the DRAM market will expand in size.
Specifically, according to iSuppli, prices for bulk buyers fell by around 3% in March of last year, while they stabilized in March 2011. As for the April price, the last forecast is expected to fall by 4% to 3%, and this forecast is to increase by 0-2%. In addition, if the shortage of wafers deteriorates, the DRAM prices in the second half of 2011 may increase further. Japan accounted for 60% of the global supply of silicon wafers, but Shinitsu Semiconductor’s Shenji and Xixiang factories, the largest suppliers of silicon wafers, were all suspended. The supply of silicon wafers in these two factories accounted for 20 %.
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