In 2011, global semiconductor sales will reach 317.4 billion U.S. dollars, a modest increase of 5.1% from the expected 312 billion U.S. dollars this year. This cannot be compared with the anticipated growth rate of 32.0% this year. However, since the recession has ended, semiconductor sales will continue to grow steadily this year. In 2014, semiconductor sales will reach approximately USD 357.4 billion, as shown in the figure. Although the semiconductor market has resumed growth, the industry’s confidence is still insufficient because the shadow of the recent economic recession is still lingering. There are several factors that indicate the impact of the recession is still high, such as the high unemployment rate, tight credit supply, and weak recovery of the housing market. These factors are suppressing consumer spending, which is the largest pillar of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
In addition, there are signs that demand in certain areas will weaken, starting from the fourth quarter and continuing into the first quarter of 2011. The growth rate of semiconductor sales in the second half of 2010 has been slower than in the first half of the year. It is now expected that the fourth quarter will be slightly lower than the third quarter. iSuppli's semiconductor research shows that the visibility of OEMs and semiconductor suppliers has become limited by the end of the year.
However, sales in most areas in 2010 have already risen back to pre-recession levels. And in 2011, it will resume normal seasonal changes and will achieve a quarter-on-quarter increase every quarter. In the normal season model, the performance in the first quarter was weak, followed by strong growth. This model was broken this year.
Data processing tops sales of electronic equipment
In 2010, the semiconductor industry rebounded from the bleak situation in 2009, with sales at the highest level in at least seven years, and even exceeding the peak value of 274.2 billion US dollars in 2007.
According to iSuppli's electronic device forecast, in the various markets of consumer semiconductors, the data processing field composed of computer systems and peripheral devices will be the largest application field in 2010, accounting for 40% of the market share. In particular, the PC sector performed well in the first half of 2010, with shipments growing 22.8% from the same period in 2009.
According to iSuppli's research, wireless communication is ranked second, accounting for 20% of the market, and the growth rate will also be higher than the average in the next five years.
Followed by the field of wireless communications is the consumer electronics sector, accounting for 19% of the market share in 2010. However, despite strong growth in this area in the first half of 2010, the economic situation may have a negative impact on the outlook for the second half of the year. Not only does consumer confidence decline, but inventory growth may also lead to a drop in average selling prices, which will inhibit sales growth. In particular, due to the increase in inventories in North America and China, the LCD TV sector will soften in the second half of 2010.
Other terminal equipment markets that rely on semiconductor consumption are divided into three areas and their market share is single digit. The market share of wired communications and industrial electronics is about 9%, and automotive electronics accounts for 6%.