Demand for DRAM industry from muddy market remains to be tested

    The 311 earthquake in Japan caused the semiconductor industry to fall into the shadow of shortages of silicon wafers, but it also allowed the dying DRAM industry to have a chance to escape from the mud. Although the DRAM prices did not really rise after the earthquake, the market price gradually warmed up. Consensus, March DRAM contract prices have risen slightly, and are expected to continue to rise slightly in April. In terms of NAND Flash contract price, the major manufacturers increased their growth rate by about 10% after the earthquake. Due to the mixed market outlook, it is expected that the NAND Flash price will remain flat or at least rise in April.

    DRAM prices hit a second-stage crash in the fourth quarter of 2010. The single-quarter price drop hit a record high, pushing the DRAM industry to the precipice again. Although in the first quarter of 2011, there was a consensus that DRAM prices were slowly rising in all walks of life. However, after all, the contours are still not obvious, and the price trend is also weak. Taiwan-based DRAM makers continue to suffer losses and mud.

    However, the sudden 311 strong earthquake in Japan, although it did not allow DRAM prices to rise sharply, because there are still lingering concerns about the shortage of silicon wafers and chemical materials, but overall, the impact of DRAM prices is still more than Cons: The willingness of personal computers (PCs) to stock up will gradually warm up.

    March DRAM contract prices began to rise, the market expected the April contract price is still able to continue to rise, the current Shinetsu Semiconductor Baihe plant has not yet announced a complete return to work, coupled with the issue of Japan's power curtailment, the stock of silicon wafers in 1-2 It's enough for the month, but it's hard to guarantee that the tight supply will not happen. It will prompt the PC makers to act in advance.

    For downstream module plants, after the strong earthquake in Japan, the quotations of DRAM and NAND Flash both increased. Under the scrutiny of interest in inventory price increases, the gross profit margin is expected to climb in March and April. For the module plant, in 2011, The operation will be easier than in 2010, because DRAM prices have risen from the bottom, unlike 2011 which was at the beginning of the year.

    Regarding NAND Flash quotation, the contract price in March continued to rise. It is expected that it will remain high in April, but the NAND Flash industry is more complicated because the tablet PC applications that are highly valued by the public in 2011 may fall into the dilemma of a bit of thunder and rain, Apple ( After the launch of the Apple (iPad) iPad2, the market is highly rated. Unless other tablet makers can lower the price, it will be difficult to compete with the iPad2.

    The industry believes that if the real sales of tablet PCs are not expected to be good, the demand for NAND Flash may be greatly reduced, which will affect the price trend of NAND Flash, and it will also face the traditional off-season test in the second quarter of the consumer electronics industry.

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