From the perspective of the development of Japanese construction machinery, it has experienced a rapid development history of nearly 50 years from 1955 to 1990. During the period, it experienced 5 distinct investment cycles. The output value of construction machinery has turned to new ones in each round of investment cycle. height. In the 10 years from 1990 to around 2000, after the post-investment cycle, the industry began to shrink gradually. Around 2001, Japanese construction machinery companies represented by Komatsu ushered in their first business challenges. In the subsequent course of development, overseas exports have become another growth engine for driving Japanese construction machinery companies. With the rise of markets such as China, South America, and South Africa, some of Japan’s domestic companies’ excess capacity has been digested. Since 2000, the Japanese construction machinery industry has also entered a mature stage, setting off an era of inventory update with a period of about 7 years.
Recalling several important points in Japan's construction machinery, it is of great significance for us to understand the current stage of engineering machinery in China. We believe that it can be compared from the following dimensions: (1) Urbanization stage, urbanization is Drive the most direct kinetic energy of construction machinery; (2) Absolute sales dimension of construction machinery products; (3) Dimension of retention, possession amount is divided into absolute ownership amount and relative retention level, and the desired retention amount based on investment scale is very important. Examine the dimensions.
The urbanization phase guides the potential for investment growth in the future. In the five cycles of Japan’s 1995-1990 boom, almost every round was related to housing investment. During the boom cycles of 1955-1964, 1965-1970, 1975-1980, and 1986-1990, In relation to real estate investment, Japan’s urbanization rate has increased from 58.42% in 1955 to 77.34% in 1990. At the current stage, in terms of domestic urbanization in China, although the level of urbanization has been accelerating since 1978, the level of urbanization in 2014 was about 54.41%, and it reached 57.35% in 2016. Consider the area and national conditions of China and Japan. Differences in the situation, the absolute index comparison of urbanization rate is relatively insignificant, but from the perspective of future improvement, the current level of urbanization rate is still in the midst of development and will still have room for improvement and potential in the future.
Looking at future investment potential from the perspective of investment volume. The construction industry investment data from 1960 to 2016 in Japan are compared with domestic urban real estate investment. Because the development starting point of the two are different, the matching value of domestic urban real estate investors from 1995 to 2016 is analyzed and the domestic 1995- The investment trend in 2016 is basically the same as that in Japan from around 1960 to 1980. Due to the difference in exchange rates, there are differences in the absolute quantity. However, for the investment trend after 1980 in Japan, the current real estate investment still has potential. .
Judging from the excavator industry trends in Japan, around 1990 was the culmination of growth, followed by adjustments of around 10 years. In terms of domestic sales of excavators from 1993 to 2016, the output value of the excavator industry in Japan increased continuously during the 25 years from 1965 to 1990, and China’s output from 1993 to 2011 also experienced rapid development. Due to the domestic RMB 4 trillion in 2010-2011 and the continued expansion of domestic production capacity, the sales volume during 2008-2012 fluctuates greatly. To facilitate comparison with the Japanese market, we do displacement processing for the sales curve to find the relative bottom. It can be found that Japan's market bottomed out in 2001, and after five years of destocking, sales are currently showing signs of recovery. From the perspective of Japan's later sales of excavators, the output value continued to hit a new high, and sales volume rose from 74,000 units at the bottom to 153,000 units in 2016.
Judging from the absolute sales volume comparison, currently the excavator sales in Japan are approximately 153,000 units, while in China, the sales volume in 2016 was only 70,000 units. However, compared to the maximum value of the excavator sales in China and Japan in the past 10 years, Small value, the interval is basically within the range of 7-16 million. Japan sold only 44,000 units in 2009. Although the number of excavators in China and Japan is quite the same, the number of work hours for excavators is different. According to historical data, the number of domestic excavator start-up hours is usually about 2.5-3 times that of domestic excavators. Even so, considering the current investment volume of China's economy and the current investment amount in Japan, the incremental potential of domestic excavators is still worth exploring.
After 2000, the Japanese market also experienced a situation in which the output of excavation machines deviated from the newly-started area. The most important reason was the external demand of Japanese brands. In 2008, the financial crisis made the output of excavators fall to historical lows and gradually got The speed of recovery and recovery is obviously higher than the speed of new real estate construction. It is also mainly due to China’s 4 trillion yuan pulling the demand for excavators in Japan.
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