The auto industry constantly introduces new jargon to confuse us, but thanks to that, we now know that driverless cars are "on the way." Some manufacturers predict that autonomous vehicles will hit the commercial market as early as 2021. However, the cost of new technology is still very high, and most people won’t be able to afford it for a while. Let’s take a look at what the car electronics editor has to say about this.
Lidar, or laser radar, is one of the most expensive components in a self-driving car. It's an imaging system that allows the car's software to "see" the road. High-end systems can cost up to $100,000, while cheaper versions may go for under $10,000. Though emerging technologies are often expensive, historically, manufacturers have found ways to reduce costs over time. But with driverless cars, the timeline is tight, meaning either high costs or delayed production are unavoidable.
Laser radar is essential for autonomous driving. Carmakers could try to cut costs by using cheaper hardware, but it's not worth the risk. Why? Because car autopilots place a huge responsibility on the system. Even mid-range lidar systems are like playing a game of chance. According to the MIT Technology Review, low-end lidar systems are almost useless when a car is traveling at highway speeds.
MIT analyzed two lidar systems from Velodyne: the HDL-64E, which costs around $80,000, and the Puck, which costs just $8,000. The HDL-64E uses 64 laser beams to create detailed images of the surroundings, covering up to 120 meters. The Puck only has 16 beams, and its image becomes distorted quickly, with a maximum range of about 100 meters. At low speeds, both systems work well, but at normal highway speeds, the Puck fails to function properly.
The issue is that even the HDL-64E barely meets the minimum requirements for freeway driving. At 70 miles per hour, the car moves 31.3 meters every second. If an emergency occurs, the car needs at least 60 meters to stop completely. The further the detection range, the more time the computer has to make decisions. Ideally, a lidar system should provide a clear image up to 200 meters away to ensure safety at highway speeds.
One potential solution is solid-state lidar systems, which are much cheaper than traditional ones. Quanergy claims to have developed a $250 component called S3, but its image quality is poor—only useful at ultra-low speeds (under 10 mph). Velodyne is also working on affordable solid-state components, but they admit these systems can't fully replace 360-degree laser systems.
Luminar CEO Austin Russell explains that their sensors avoid solid-state hardware. The main reason is that traditional laser systems, though costly, provide clearer images, making driving safer. He says, “If you only see a few points, even with advanced machine learning, it doesn’t help because you don’t know what the object is. If you can only see things 30 meters away, and the car is moving at highway speed, that’s just one second of distance.â€
Graeme Smith, head of the University of Oxford’s driverless program, believes the lidar industry may find a balance between data quality and price. This could allow differentiation, enabling high-speed autonomous vehicles to operate safely on highways. He adds, “Compared to high-speed self-driving cars, the price of low-speed versions may drop faster. If you need a lidar to cover more than 250 meters, use a better one. If you’re only driving in low-speed environments, a cheaper sensor with a 15-meter range might be enough.â€
Still, using low-quality lidars increases overall costs. Industry experts and automakers estimate that unmanned hardware could add $8,000–$10,000 to a car’s final price, but actual costs may be higher. When you factor in all the hardware on a test platform, the total becomes astronomical. Tesla aims to reduce radar costs to $8,000, but it also installs thousands of dollars in cameras, computers, and inertial measurement units. Many worry about the clarity of Tesla’s radar images.
Additionally, if companies use high-definition lidar systems, they may need to switch to radar or shut down the system in fog. In a recent interview with Axios, Luminar’s Russell said that for a driverless car to be sold, safety must be the top priority, and the “critical failure rate†must be minimized. He believes the industry has focused too much on cost-cutting and now needs to focus on making the technology unbreakable.
Russell estimates that perfecting the technology could cost between $300,000 and $400,000, which fleet owners are willing to pay because ride-sharing is a profitable business.
In summary, the realization of autonomous driving is closely tied to lidar technology. As the industry continues to evolve, finding the right balance between cost, performance, and safety will be key. For more updates and in-depth information on automotive electronics, stay tuned. We’ll keep bringing you the latest and most detailed insights.
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